I’m a habitual NYT Connections (and Wordle) player, so solving the connection between words is one of my early morning routines. But when it comes to solving the connection between chickens, cows and egg prices, it’s more complicated than just matching the green or purple squares in a few minutes. While the price of eggs takes “center stage” in headlines and political discussions, its viral connection (avian/bird flu or H5N1) is often missing.
Price is the result of supply and demand. The prices we see in the dairy case (eggs more than milk) reflect supply. Until we find the “cure” for bird flu, we will feel the impact — and the farmers will feel it more than us. It’s these type of realities beyond the dairy case that connect all of us … scientists to farmers and consumers and the price of eggs.
Bird Flu is Not Going Away … Yet
We love eggs as we should! But due to the continuous H5N1 outbreaks, there’s approximately 10% less egg-laying hens in the U.S. today than a year ago.1 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that as of February 2025, around 156 million egg-laying chickens have been lost due to the outbreak in all 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico2 despite the biosecurity measures that are in place.
H5N1 is transmitted by wild migratory birds. In 2022, it became a serious threat for the poultry industry in North America. But it wasn’t until early 2024 that we, as consumers, became more aware of the situation when the Centers for Disease Control announced that avian flu had been diagnosed in dairy cattle herds. While it was initially found in Texas, it has now been found in 977 of the 23,000 U.S. herds across 17 states.
Though not regarded as a threat to human health, there have been 70 confirmed human H5N1 cases and one death in the U.S since 2022.3 These individuals usually worked in the dairies or around other animals.
Stopping the Spread — NOT
The poultry and dairy industries have not been sitting idly by while bird flu spreads. But all concur, the current approved measures are not working to eliminate the virus long term.
For example, most of the egg-laying hens that have been destroyed were not the result of actual infections, but due to the standard disease prevention protocol. Standing U.S. policy requires individual farms to depopulate their entire flocks if a single case of bird flu is detected within a ten-mile radius.4 This is a global standard quarantine protocol for trying to limit spread of zoonotic disease among commercial poultry and livestock operations.5 Even though USDA does provide monetary compensation to the farmers for the loss, it does not compensate the farmer’s overall bottom line or ease the consumer-facing egg prices.
For dairies, individual herd testing, waste management practices and restriction of transporting dairy herds across state lines have been implemented to minimize virus spread. While the virus migration into dairy herds does not eliminate cows or alter the milk supply, there is still a financial and safety management issue without a firm solution.
Migratory birds can’t be controlled! Dairy cows are exposed to the outdoor elements along with those that care for them. So, what’s the answer? Prevention and treatment.
Focus on Science: Prevent and Treat
Whether it’s the vested egg-producing poultry and dairy farmers or infectious disease experts, all agree on the same strategy. It is important to prevent virus spread through a robust surveillance program and move forward with an avian flu vaccine program for dairy cattle and poultry.
As one infectious disease physician stated “the reality is that we can’t prepare for what we don’t know is there. A critical aspect of surveillance is understanding what is circulating and what is a potential threat for spreading to other species.”6
In late February, the newly confirmed Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins introduced a plan that would create a pathway for vaccines in poultry as well as increased funding for improved biosecurity measures and financial assistance for poultry farmers.7 At the same time, several of the USDA scientists working on the bird flu outbreaks had their positions eliminated. This action, along with the seemingly “less-than favorable” support of vaccines and some unorthodox recommendations8 by the newly confirmed Health and Human Services Secretary, could pose a barrier to preventing and treating the virus.
The Bottom Line
- Egg prices are probably not going back to the “99 cents/dozen” anytime soon. However, a recent USDA Ag Marketing report shows that bird flu outbreaks have slowed in the past two weeks and are isolated, allowing for egg producers to start closing the “supply and demand” gap.
- The eggs and pasteurized milk in our grocery store are safe. Now more than ever the long-time federal milk pasteurization standards are critical. Current research shows the H5N1 can survive in raw milk. As mentioned in an earlier blog, since 1908, pasteurized milk is the answer to a safe milk supply.9
- Surveillance and prevention are key to stopping the avian virus spread. Dairy and poultry producers are working collaboratively with USDA to seek approval for a vaccine plan and mitigate any potential trade barriers.
- What happens on the farm affects everybody’s health and economic bottom line. Keeping evidence-based solutions in the forefront to ensure a safe and healthy food supply is the ultimate goal.
Notes:
1. “California is at the center of the country’s egg mess. Here’s why and what’s coming,” Caroline Petrow-Cohen, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 13, 2025.
2. “U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak Persists,” Farm Journal, Stephanie Mercier, March 06, 2025.
3. “U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak Persists,” Farm Journal, Stephanie Mercier, March 06, 2025.
4. Id.
5. Id.
6. “Are We on the Cusp of a Major Bird Flu Outbreak?” Harvard Medical School, Catherine Caruso, March 7, 2025.
7. “U.S. Bird Flu Outbreak Persists,” Farm Journal, Stephanie Mercier, March 06, 2025.
8. “Kennedy’s Alarming Prescription for Bird Flu on Poultry Farms, “ The New York Times, Apoorva Mandavilli, March 19, 2025.
9. “Weighing the Risks and Benefits: Raw Milk Is a ‘Raw Deal’,” Marianne Smith Edge, November 26, 2024.